Headache-Inducing Questions

What is it about our society, and in particular our politics, that stifles the basic question/answer process? Questions and answers, causes and effects, problems and solutions; these constructs should not be difficult. But we Americans have divorced ourselves from these fundamentals. As a society, we have adopted the communication tactics formerly employed by teenagers.

A problem, in the teenage mind, is not a problem unless they might perceive a direct and immediate personal effect. A problem, for teenagers, that is not perceived as having direct or immediate effect, is valuable only in its ability to present opportunities for positive personal effect. A question, asked of a teenager, is meant to be answered directly only when the direct answer benefits the teenager directly and immediately. In the third century of American politics, it is the teenager’s self-absorbed, time-constrained perspective that dictates the conversation.

Continue reading

Personal Reasons

In thinking about this election and its demographics, I suppose I fit the profile of a Romney voter. I was raised by white, working class Catholics. I grew up in a town where some of the unions, it seemed, were hell-bent on giving the very notion of unionization a terrible name. I was read the Bible in our home, sent to religious education, and served as an altar boy. To this day, I still believe my 6 years of Catholic schooling to be the cornerstone of whatever intellect I claim. There is little to indicate I should be anything less than a social conservative.

The dual focus of my M.B.A. was finance and international business. I believe in the value of free trade. Bootstraps belonging to my family and myself were tugged on in my slow rise to the middle. I never claimed unemployment, never went on Medicaid, and was never quite poor enough to qualify for education subsidies. To top it all off, I have spent a 20 year career working as a professional manager in a capitalist system that I believe is the best economic system we have. There is little to indicate I should be anything less than a fiscal conservative.

I grew up reading everything I could grasp about military history. I collected no baseball cards, and knew far more about Vinegar Joe Stillwell and Howlin Mad Holland Smith than I did about any athlete. My Dad’s press passes to the annual season-opening air show at Nellis Air Force Base were the highlights of my spring. I own and enjoy shooting firearms, and would not think of giving up my right to a juicy steak. There is little to indicate I would be anything less than a conservative hawk on the military and gun rights.

But I support President Obama.

Thirty years ago, I might have been a moderate Republican. Thirty years ago, Mitt Romney might have been permitted to be a moderate Republican. The world, sadly, has changed. Like a nation of teenagers, we have become unable to view the world from a perspective bigger than ourselves. We seem ready and able to condemn any facts that are inconvenient, and the entire conservative movement is committed to the derivative notion that any numbers that fail to support their worldview are necessarily wrong.

It is a very different notion to be a federalist, and to place importance on the maintenance of state’s rights while solving national issues, than it is to thoroughly disregard any role for our democracy in the solving of national problems. But that is the mantra that modern conservatives have adopted as their creed. From the federal government on down, the gameplan for modern conservatism is to deny the role at one level, then deny it at the next, before finally and completely destroying the ability of citizens to affect the destiny of their marketplace through democratically-elected government.

They have no positive argument for the reestablishment of conservative governance, they have only negative assertions about the current President. And their negative arguments are typically weak and circular. The following typifies their case:

Conservatives-President Obama presides over an economy with 7.9% unemployment, his policies have failed.

Liberals-Net job losses began in 2007, reached their peak at the end of 2008, and ended during the same month that President Obama’s first budget took effect.

Conservatives-Why do you blame President Bush?

Americans can point to a series of budget resolutions, executive orders, and enforcement decisions, made by the Bush Administration, that led directly to massive job losses. Those job losses were still in process when President Obama took office. So the entire case for Republican change is based on the idea that President Obama was not able to instantaneously reverse 8 years of executive decision-making. This isn’t excuse-making, it is exactly the kind of rigorous accountability assignment and analyses that any successful business owner must undertake. To be certain, if Mitt Romney had practiced the same level of data analyses in his hedge fund that he does on the campaign trail, he would be broke.

In thinking about the demographics of this election, my white, working class Catholic parents taught me to work hard for myself, and think first of others. They taught me that my religion was something to be embraced, not something to be enforced on others. By example, they taught me that the bad behavior of an individual did not a bad organization make. It seems that there is little to indicate I should be anything less than a social liberal.

I have never worked in a business, small or large, that was prepared to build all of its roads, educate all of its workers, and protect all of its consumers. In all of the economic history of the world, there has never been an occasion where simple human nature could not, or did not, rise up to distort and destroy free markets. All markets need regulation, as all markets are as fallible as the humans that they serve. It seems that there is little to indicate I should be anything less than a fiscal liberal.

As a proud and confident American, I am positive that the leaders of our military can continue to be the dominant force in the world without spending more money than the next ten biggest military spenders combined. As a gun owner who has never, ever, seen the world-ending, gun-repossessing legislation that the NRA constantly lies about, I am comfortable with the idea that common-sense gun regulations aren’t going to come between anyone and the 2nd Amendment. Hawks, as seen in nature, are careful and discerning birds, not given to extremism.

We will hopefully get to a time in our nation where the party of conservatives is comfortable enough in their ideology that they can embrace both it and reasoned discussion at the same time. But they don’t have that ability now. Four years ago, Republicans announced their intention to abandon all legislative goals that did not directly lead to the defeat of Barack Obama this year. Every position, without regard to the President’s process, or even the conservative origin of the solution, was attacked with labels that were unambiguously ugly and hateful.

In the mode of parents who, regrettably, don’t believe in corporal punishment, I think conservative politicians need a time-out. On Tuesday, I will vote, at every level of the ticket, to give them that time-out.

Join The Rational Middle for our live-blog of the election, with regular updates beginning at 7 pm Eastern and continuing until 1 am Eastern, and comment on Facebook right from the blog.

 

Some people don’t have the privilege…vote!

 

Scoreboard Watching

The game is coming down to the wire, the 11 battleground states now have 11 days to make up their collective minds as to who should sit in the White House this January. So what do the polls say about the state of the race for the White House? For reference, the RM uses the polling aggregate on pollster.com, which includes all of the top polls in a regression (it measures trend, rather than just a single point average.) Undecided percentages are a range of the most common results, and recent polling results are labeled “consistent” if greater than 2/3 of the polls show the same leader.

  • Colorado (9 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 1 point, with 3%-6% of the electorate undecided and recent polling showing a clear Obama lead. However, this polling is dominated by firms with known Democratic house-effects, so this race remains a toss-up.
  • Florida (29 votes)- Mr. Romney and Pres. Obama are in a trend tie, with 2%-4% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is still leaning towards Mr. Romney.
  • Iowa (6 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 2.2 points, with 2%-4% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama.
  • Michigan (16 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 7.3 points, with 2%-4% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama.
  • Nevada (6 votes)- Pres Obama over Mr. Romney by 3.3 points, with 2%-3% of the electorate undecided and unified recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama.
  • New Hampshire (4 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 1.7 points, with 1%-5% of the electorate undecided and mixed recent polls. This race is a toss-up.
  • North Carolina (15 votes)- Mr. Romney over Pres. Obama by 1.8 points, with 1%-4% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Mr. Romney.
  • Ohio (18 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 2.5 points, with 3%-6% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama.
  • Pennsylvania (20 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 6 points, with 2%-3% of the electorate undecided and unified recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama.
  • Virginia (13 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 1 point, with 1%-4% of the electorate undecided and mixed recent polls. This race is a toss-up.
  • Wisconsin (10 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 4.6 points, with 2%-4% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama.

The combination of current polling and baseline assumptions gives us a picture of the race in total:

President Obama- 277 electoral votes

Mr. Romney- 235 electoral votes

Up For Grabs- 26 electoral votes

Friends of The RM will see that these electoral projections are identical to those from last week, with only changes in directionality and magnitude within the state polls in question. President Obama is doing marginally better in some states (like Virginia), and Mr. Romney is doing marginally better in other states (like New Hampshire).

With 270 electoral votes needed for the White House, Mr. Romney still faces a difficult path to the White House. But unlike previous elections, this path need not travel through old channels, namely, that one must win 2 of the three Big Three, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. See the following scenario:

If Romney can maintain leads in Florida and North Carolina, pull back Mr. Obama’s lead in Wisconsin, and win in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia, then he would score 271 electoral votes and take the election.

Reason for liberals to stay active, conservatives to stay hopeful, and everyone to exercise that one shining gift of all Americans who came before us.

Vote!

After you do your duty, tune into The Rational Middle at 7 pm eastern for 5 hours of live coverage of the election. I will live blog updates for the races for the House, Senate, and the White House, and you can comment directly via Facebook. Unless you really want to watch Fox or MSNBC all night…

National Insecurity

If they had nothing else going for them, Republicans could always count on being the party of shock and awe. Candidates running for the red-staters had machismo on their side, and an inexhaustible ability to argue they were the ones to keep us safe. Never was that phenomena more in evidence then when the GOP ran on the idea that they “kept us safe”, after allowing the single most costly attack on the United States in our history on 9/11.

But no more. Mitt Romney and the Men Behind The Mannequin find themselves fumbling for a new script. Since President Obama moved in, we have moved out of Iraq, and that nation still stands. Since President Obama moved in, we have first accelerated, then drawn down in Afghanistan, with the ultimate result being the utter destruction of every level of Al Qaeda in existence at the beginning of 2008 (including, of course, the death of He Who Shall Not Be Named).

What’s a Wall Street Tycoon who wants to be President to do? Romney took shots at Obama’s “weakness” in Iran, calling on the President to deploy two carrier groups to the region…the President already had two on station and a third en route. Romney, most recently and famously, thought it intelligent to call out the President on force levels. Apparently, the steady increases to the Defense Budget during Obama’s first term weren’t enough; Romney saw the future, and was scared by the weakness in our Navy.

We now have fewer ships in the Navy then at any time since 1917.-Mitt Romney

We also have fewer horses and bayonettes then we did in 1917…-President Obama

As has happened so often in the last year, Mitt Romney has managed to be ill-timed, dishonest, and wrong at the same time. Totally apart from the fact that capabilities and usage has changed in the last 100 years, and removed from the reality that our Navy is fully capable of engaging strategic formations in multiple locations around the globe at the same time, is the reality that our Navy has more ships now than we did under President Bush.

During the last four years, Iran has been muted, North Korea marginalized, and the Arab world swept by democracy. Not all of these are accomplishments to be laid at the feet of the President, but it is difficult to see a better set of circumstances, or the policy that would have led to such. The President came to office with a promise to leave Iraq in good condition. Done. The President came into office with a promise to accelerate the conflict in Afghanistan with the intent of destroying Al Qaeda and bringing Bin Laden to justice. Done. The President came into office with a promise to rebuild America’s international standing without compromising its security. Done.

What is Mitt Romney’s argument?

 

The Rational Middle is listening…

Time Out

OK kids…time for a time out! I may just be calling this for myself, but that’s OK…it is my blog. In any case, today is a no politics Thursday in The Rational Middle. No debates, no controversies, no names, no pundits…just a series of things we can all agree on…well, maybe.

This is for Dee in Nebraska, Mark in Michigan, Clint in Texas, Sandy in Nevada, David in California, Jenna in Virginia, and Tim in Illinois. All of these folks are people I know in the real world, or through cyberspace, and all would be welcome in my home. All of them also share…well, let’s say conflicting political beliefs. Below, however, is a list of things that, I think, are both more important and more fun to talk about.

Very Important Points

  1. Baseball is a beautiful game…and far more enjoyable to play and watch then that boring cricket the Brits play. It also produced one of the few lines of script ever delivered properly by Kevin Costner; (words to live by) “I believe…in the hanging curve, the small of a women’s back, good scotch, and long, slow, deep, wet…” you know the rest.
  2. Football is the new American pastime, but sometimes it seems like the organizers (the NFL and big college conferences), and the players get a little too big for their britches.
  3.  Cookouts equal good living…few things beat the American Cheeseburger, and even vegetarians can join in the fun with a good portobello version of the classic (those poor deprived souls).
  4. American Democracy is the worst form of government in the world, other than all of the rest of the forms of government in the world.
  5. People that have lots of money sometimes forget what it is like to not have money…and that is a form of memory-loss that I must confess has a certain appeal.
  6. All television would be better without commercials.
  7. All television would be better without reality TV “celebrities”.
  8. Americans eat too much, but that doesn’t mean that clothing firms and glamour mags should cater only to Americans who don’t eat enough.
  9. Life isn’t nearly as fun without desert, sex, or the guilt which can sometimes occur with one or the other.
  10. The Mayans weren’t “right”…no matter what the bumper stickers say, America will still be here in January regardless of who is elected.

Vote for sure, but remember the finer things!

The Rational Middle is listening…

Polling Noise: Where Are We At?

With under three weeks until the 2012 election, the landscape of the race for President has, counter to cable news opinion, changed little from August. President Obama continues to hold narrow leads in the national polls (most of the time), and narrow leads in enough battleground states to be the favorite. Events like conventions and debates move the needle, but the majority of the effect of these events is temporary.

Coming into the election, most competent observers gave the Democratic incumbent a baseline of 16 states and the District of Columbia worth 201 electoral votes. The same observers credited the Republican challenger with 23 states worth 191 electoral votes. That leaves 11 precious “battleground states”; you know if you live in one based on the volume of political ads (pity the poor souls in Ohio, who haven’t had the pleasure of a beer commercial in three months).

So what do the polls say about the state of the race for the White House? For reference, the RM uses the polling aggregate on pollster.com, which includes all of the top polls in a regression (it measures trend, rather than just a single point average.) Undecided percentages are a range of the most common results, and recent polling results are labeled “consistent” if greater than 2/3 of the polls show the same leader.

  • Colorado (9 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 1 point, with 3%-6% of the electorate undecided and mixed recent polling. This race is a toss-up.
  • Florida (29 votes)- Mr. Romney over Pres. Obama by 1 point, with 2%-4% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Mr. Romney.
  • Iowa (6 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 3.5 points, with 2%-4% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama.
  • Michigan (16 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 7 points, with 3%-7% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama.
  • Nevada (6 votes)- Pres Obama over Mr. Romney by 3 points, with 1%-3% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama.
  • New Hampshire (4 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 2 points, with 1%-4% of the electorate undecided and mixed recent polls. This race is a toss-up.
  • North Carolina (15 votes)- Mr. Romney over Pres. Obama by 3 points, with 1%-4% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Mr. Romney.
  • Ohio (18 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 3 points, with 2%-4% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama.
  • Pennsylvania (20 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 5.5 points, with 1%-4% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama.
  • Virginia (13 votes)- Mr. Romney over Pres. Obama by 0.1 (one tenth of one point), with 3%-4% of the electorate undecided and mixed recent polls. This race is a toss-up.
  • Wisconsin (10 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 2.5 points, with 2%-4% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama.

The combination of current polling and baseline assumptions gives us a picture of the race in total:

President Obama- 277 electoral votes

Mr. Romney- 235 electoral votes

Up For Grabs- 26 electoral votes

Mr. Romney has not contested Pennsylvania, and faces an uphill climb in Michigan. He did poorly there in that state during the primary, garnering only 41% of the vote in a state where his father was a popular governor, and famously (and publicly) took a position against the successful auto bailout. Mr. Romney has never jumped to the front in Ohio, where the electorate has been voting for weeks. An Obama win is probably (certainty is not a good quality in punditry) already in the bag in the Buckeye State.

With 270 electoral votes needed for the White House, that means that Mr. Romney needs all of the toss-up states and one of the following two scenarios:

  1. Romney catches up in Wisconsin and defeats the President 271-267.
  2. Romney catches up in both Nevada and Iowa, and defeats the President 273-265.

With three weeks left, anything can happen, so the message is simple.

Vote!

 

The Rational Middle is listening…