The Final Countdown

It only seems like one million commercials ago that the race for the White House, 2012, began. A reported $6 billion has been spent to convince Americans that one of two parties should control the near-destiny of our nation; will that spending amount to anything? The most heavily polled election happens tomorrow, and it is time for a final countdown. As before, we draw our numbers from the reporting of pollster.com, which has tracked literally thousands of polls throughout this process.

A final note on this process; there is little precedent for the sheer volume of polling across the 11 battleground states and in the national surveys, and no precedent for an election-day departure from the leads we are seeing in these polls. This is, of course, no guarantee of anything. Regardless of party, leanings, or location, voting on November 6 is the only honor-worthy choice for Americans.

Let’s see where we stand:

  • National Popular Vote- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 1.2 points. 22 polls have reported results including November surveys, the President leads in 13, Mr. Romney leads in 3, and there are 6 ties. The nation is leaning towards Pres. Obama. RM Prediction-Obama
  • Colorado (9 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by o.6 of a point with 3%-6% of the electorate undecided and recent polling showing a clear Obama lead. However, the gap has been shrinking and early voting favors Mr. Romney, so this race remains a toss-up. RM Prediction-Romney
  • Florida (29 votes)- Mr. Romney leads Pres. Obama by 0.4 points, with 2%-4% of the electorate undecided. Recent polls have broke 6-3-1 for Pres. Obama, and early voting favors the Democrats. This race is a toss-up. RM Prediction-Romney
  • Iowa (6 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 2.5 points, with 2%-4% of the electorate undecided, consistent recent polls, and no clear advantage in early voting. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama. RM Prediction-Obama
  • Michigan (16 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 6.4 points, with 2%-4% of the electorate undecided and consistent recent polls. This state is safe for Pres. Obama. RM Prediction-Obama
  • Nevada (6 votes)- Pres Obama over Mr. Romney by 3 points, with 2%-3% of the electorate undecided, unified recent polls, and a clear advantage in early voting for Pres. Obama. This state is safe for Pres. Obama. RM Prediction-Obama
  • New Hampshire (4 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 2.2 points, with 2%-3% of the electorate undecided and uniform recent polls. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama. RM Prediction-Obama
  • North Carolina (15 votes)- Mr. Romney over Pres. Obama by 1.9 points, with 1%-4% of the electorate undecided, a consistent poll trend towards Romney, and a modest early voting advantage for Democrats. This race is leaning towards Mr. Romney. RM Prediction-Romney
  • Ohio (18 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 3.3 points, with 2%-4% of the electorate undecided, uniform recent polls, and a modest early voting advantage for Mr. Romney. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama. RM Prediction-Obama
  • Pennsylvania (20 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 5.7 points, with 2%-3% of the electorate undecided, unified recent polls, and a modest early voting advantage for Pres. Obama. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama. RM Prediction-Obama
  • Virginia (13 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 1.5 points, with 2%-5% of the electorate undecided, uniform recent polls, and no clear early voting advantage. This race is leaning towards Pres. Obama. RM Prediction-Obama
  • Wisconsin (10 votes)- Pres. Obama over Mr. Romney by 4.2 points, with 2%-3% of the electorate undecided, uniform recent polls, and an early voting advantage for Pres. Obama. This state is safe for Pres. Obama. RM Prediction-Obama

The combination of current polling and baseline assumptions gives us a picture of the race in total:

President Obama- 294

Governor Romney- 244

The Rational Middle predicts that President Obama will be retained for a second term by an electoral margin of 50 votes, and by a popular margin of 2.5%. Tune in at 7 pm Eastern for the RM Election Live Blog to see whether the prediction rings true, or goes up in smoke.

 

The Rational Middle is listening…